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Abstract: 

This is the second and final section of an article arguing that expert witnesses, who offer testimony about whether or not an offender should be civilly committed for “sexual dangerousness” may offer arbitrary opinions, which are often determinative in the court’s ruling. This article examines studies showing that the validity of expert opinions on sexual dangerousness does not meet appropriate standards of certainty for the interests at stake.

Keywords: “New Salem Witch Trials”; Adam Walsh Act; sex offense recidivism; Commonwealth v. Boucher; null hypothesis; chance phenomenon; Counting Recidivists, Not Offenses; stealth and multiple offenses; Reasonable Downward Adjustment to Overall Base Rate

Affiliations:  1: Massachusetts Treatment Center for Sexually Dangerous Persons at the Massachusetts Correctional Institution.